Saturday, November 29, 2008

The Turning Point

I'm back and I know all three of you missed me.

After the Miami Dolphins shocked the Patriots in Week 3 (the greatest upset in Dolphins history), one of the team’s radio announcers said we might look back on this game some day as the longed-for turning point for the franchise. Nodding in agreement (at least in spirit) and caught up in the hype of the huge win I was sorely tempted to write a subsequent post about “The Turning Point”. Then I remembered that, however impressive, it was just one win. There’s no law that said the Dolphins couldn’t go back-to-back 1-15. And I’d refrained from making any predictions after all of my 2007 ones bombed like The Love Guru. Remember? Miami’d go 8-8. Favre was washed up. So was Jamal Lewis. John Beck might be good. That didn’t happen? Actually I didn’t refrain from making predictions, I retired out of embarrassment. So no predicting a Turning Point. I needed definitive proof. When Miami followed up the big upset with a nice win over the Chargers, a preseason Super Bowl fave after all, I was on the verge of writing about “The Turning Point” but I decided to wait one more week first. After Miami came back late to take the lead on the road against the Texans my typing fingers were warming up but they let it slip away, blowing a chance for a third straight win and a winning record. Back into hibernation went The Turning Point. Still the team was at least competitive; two of their three losses had been close. However, the next loss wasn’t. Baltimore came to town and handed Miami their lunch. The Dolphins looked listless and overmatched against the lone team they beat one year earlier. Goodbye Turning Point.

And hello again Turning Point. Yes, after four straight wins and a 6-4 record we can safely say this Dolphins team is far better than it was last year and there’s no reason to think the improvement’s a fluke or that it can’t be built upon. Of course I’m so slow I couldn’t finish this post before Miami’s win streak ended at the hands of, who else, the Patriots. Still, the improvement is clearly real so what can we say accounts for this great leap forward? I’d go with these things:

1) New Talent: The passing game is by far the team’s best unit right now and most of the credit must go to Chad Pennington. What a huge upgrade he’s turned out to be over last year’s terrible trio of Green, Lemon and Beck. And he cost the team virtually nothing. The Dolphins are a run-first team this year but when Pennington drops back to pass he’s not throwing many interceptions and he’s averaging eight yards an attempt. Free-agent pickup Anthony Fasano and undrafted Davone Bess have been reliable weapons for Pennington. And number one pick Jake Long looks very good so far.

2) Old Talent. Specifically, getting more out of it. Joey Porter’s having a career year. Ted Ginn (who we feared a bust), Greg Camarillo (before he got hurt) and David Martin (who?) have all played much better this year, no doubt helped by better quarterbacking. The Dolphins now appear to have the makings of a solid receiving corps. Even Ricky Williams is contributing. Who knew? Ronnie Brown’s back to his pre-torn ACL self.

3) Coaching: Fasano’s brought the Wildcat back to the NFL! Need I say more? Ok, it’s not single-handedly responsible for all the wins but it gave the team a huge edge when first introduced, it helped instill confidence in the players that the coach has some idea what he’s doing (an element sorely lacking last year!) and it’s gotten more playmakers involved in the offense. The whole thing was brilliant. I also can’t recall any games this year where Fasano seemed overmatched or panicked or butchered the clock or made stupid replay challenges. And the great years Miami’s gotten from guys who’d been disappointments before (Porter, Ginn) is also to Fasano’s credit. Give him his due.

4) Management. Parcells. Someone in charge who knows what he’s doing. It’s been awhile. And it can’t hurt that everyone in the organization must fear the Tuna’s wrath. At least Huizenga’s last big decision before getting out of Dodge was a good one (finally).

Miami’s still got a good shot at making the playoffs, something nobody but the team’s most deluded fan could have expected. As 4 of the last 5 games are on the road I wouldn’t count on it but just finishing with 7 or 8 wins would be a huge accomplishment. Last year Miami looked on the way to becoming this decade’s Detroit Lions. Of course the Lions decided they were still this decade’s Detroit Lions leaving the Dolphins no choice but to make giant strides seemingly overnight. After the misery of last season, this year’s been a lot of fun so far.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Jets' Streak In Jeopardy

For the first time in 6 years, the 2007 NFL season featured a team that won but a single game. Unfortunately, that team happened to be my team, the Miami Dolphins. But this post isn't about the Dolphins. First I need to update the list I previously created of every single one-loss NFL team of the modern era. In parenthesis are the teams that lost to the one-loss teams.

1960: Washington Redskins (Dallas Cowboys)
1961: Washington Redskins (Dallas Cowboys)
1962: Oakland Raiders (Boston Patriots)
1962: Los Angeles Rams (San Francisco 49’ers)
1966: New York Giants (Washington Redskins)
1967: Atlanta Falcons (Minnesota Vikings)
1968: Buffalo Bills (New York Jets)
1969: Chicago Bears (Pittsburgh Steelers)
1969: Pittsburgh Steelers (Detroit Lions)
1971: Buffalo Bills (New England Patriots)
1972: Houston Oilers (New York Jets)
1973: Houston Oilers (Baltimore Colts)
1980: New Orleans Saints (New York Jets)
1982: Houston Oilers (Seattle Seahawks)
1989: Dallas Cowboys (Washington Redskins)
1990: New England Patriots (Indianapolis Colts)
1991: Indianapolis Colts (New York Jets)
1996: New York Jets (Arizona Cardinals)
2000: San Diego Chargers (Kansas City Chiefs)
2001: Carolina Panthers (Minnesota Vikings)
2007: Miami Dolphins (Baltimore Ravens)

The teams in parenthesis are the teams I'm interested on here; one in particular. Note that the New York Jets appear four times having been the lone victim of four of the worst teams in NFL history. And those four losses happened in 1968, 1972, 1980 and 1991. That's right, once in each of the last four decades! But the Jets' streak is now in real danger of ending. Heading into Week 9 of the 2009 season, just three teams have a chance of finishing the season with one loss. The Kansas City Chiefs have won only game so far, but the Jets weren't the team they beat. (They lost to the Jets in fact). The Detroit Lions haven't won a game but they don't get to play the Jets this year. And the winless Cincinatti Bengals. Oh the Bengals. This was it. This was the chance. And of course the Jets blew it! They played in Week 6 and wouldn't you know it, the Jets had to go and beat them. Damn it! So to extend their streak into a fifth decade the Jets must be somebody's only win in 2009. Or else it's all over. Please, please don't let it end.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

The Greatest Upset in Miami Dolphins History

On September 21, 2008, the Miami Dolphins traveled to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots. Miami had lost 20 of their last 21 regular season games. New England had won 21 straight. Understandably, the oddsmakers made Miami a double-digit underdog. Final score: Miami 38 New England 13. A complete beatdown. I later read somebody online call it the Greatest Upset in Dolphins History. Now, normally I hate the knee-jerk reactions of fans unsteeped in sports history and, especially, the loud-mouth sports “journalists” who can’t wait to anoint a game, a team, a player, anything as the greatest ever before the dust settles and we can impartially weight what we’ve just seen. But the more I think about, the more I’m convinced Miami indeed pulled off the biggest upset in team history when they crushed the Pats.

The simple truth is Miami’s rarely pulled off any big upsets in their 42-plus year history. What other candidates exist? Well, we can quickly dispense with any big postseason upsets; Miami’s never had any (sad but true). They’ve never been a big home underdog in a playoff game. And they’ve won exactly three postseason road games ever: beating Kansas City in the 1971 divisional round, Pittsburgh in the 1972 AFC title game and Seattle in a 1999 wild card game. The first of those might be considered a surprise since KC was the established power at the time, but both teams were 10-3-1, and Miami the team on the rise, so the win was a mild upset at best. Certainly nobody was surprised by the time the game ended; you couldn’t have a more evenly played game (double overtime). Now I’ve read that the 1972 Dolphins were actually a slight underdog heading into Super Bowl VII. Even if that were true however, nobody could possibly have been shocked when the undefeated team came out on top that day.

A regular season upset needs to be pretty memorable if anybody’s going to remember it after the thrill of victory wears off. I can only recall exactly one huge and memorable upset sprung by the Dolphins in the regular season. One of the most famous games in NFL history in fact. In week 13 of the 1985 season, the Dolphins shocked the 12-0 Chicago Bears 38-24 on Monday Night. Da Bears were big favorites, winning their previous three games by a combined 104-3 score, but on that night they were no match for Dan Marino’s offense (IMO Marino’s finest moment). Miami halted the Bears’ march to an undefeated season but honestly nobody should have been that shocked. The 1985 Dolphins were defending conference champions, they were at home on Monday Night, and they were 8-4 at the time. Compare that team to the 2008 Dolphins--a winless joke (at the time). And they had to beat the defending conference champs on the road. The point spreads reflected the different circumstances. If I remember correctly, Miami was about an eight-point dog to the Bears while the 2008 squad were double digit underdogs.

There just aren’t any other contenders for the honor. 2008, Week Three: Miami 38 New England 13. The Greatest Upset in Miami Dolphins History.

Friday, October 3, 2008

How The Miami Dolphins Hit Rock Bottom

As you might suspect from some of my posts, I’m fascinated by how successful football teams are put together, like the most successful team ever: the 1972 Dolphins. Yet somehow, I'm almost equally fascinated by how truly terrible football teams are put together. And this decade’s Miami Dolphins have been one truly terrible football team. I’ve tackled the topic several times—the bad drafts, the bad trades, the bad free agent signings. I’ve leveled blame against Dave Wannstedt, Rick Spielman, and Nick Saban among others. But there’s one person who I haven’t talked about much because, until recently, I hadn’t realized just how much of the blame he deserves.

When Wayne Huizenga became the Miami Dolphins’ new owner back in 1990, he appeared to be a welcome change from previous owner Joe Robbie. Miami achieved great success under Robbie, but Robbie was a well-known cheapskate and, though he was shrewd enough to steal away Don Shula from the Colts to coach the Fins, the two men had a terrible personal relationship. After Huizenga entered the picture he upgraded the Dolphins’ facilities and I don’t know that he and Shula ever had words with each other (at least not until 1995). Miami stopped having ugly contract holdouts and when the free agency era dawned the Dolphins weren’t shy about splurging. Despite Huizenga’s freer-spending ways though Miami never reached the same heights they had when Robbie ran the show. Yeah the team consistently won but Super Bowl appearances were becoming a distant memory. Tiring of the embarrassing postseason losses to Buffalo, Huizenga forced Shula out and replaced him with Jimmy Johnson. When a burnt-out Johnson quit four years later, Huizenga inserted Johnson’s right-hand man, Dave Wannstedt.

Huizenga preferred to put all the power over the football side of things in the hands of one person. In turn Shula, Johnson, and then Wannstedt each called all the shots. Unfortunately, Wannstedt lacked both Shula’s coaching ability and Johnson’s personnel acumen. As the fortunes of the team crumbled Huizenga changed his philosophy of giving a single man the reins of power. Mike Tanier lays it all out beautifully in his essay on the Miami Dolphins in the 2008 Football Prospectus. As Miami began to crumble under Wannstedt’s “leadership”, the team underwent a succession of disastrous front-office moves as Huizenga frantically sought undo past errors and restore the team to greatness. Or at least goodness. First Rick Spielman was brought in to assist Wannstedt with personnel decisions. That didn’t work. Huizenga then brought in Dan Marino (?!?!) to oversee football operations but luckily for his reputation and his sanity Dan realized his enormous mistake and ran back to his CBS and HBO gigs before it was too late. Huizenga then promoted Spielman over Wannstedt. Then he fired Wannstedt. Then he brought in Nick Saban to coach while keeping Spielman. Then he fired Spielman and brought in Randy Mueller as the personnel guru to work with Saban. When Saban quit, Huizenga hired Cam Cameron to coach the team but he kept on Mueller. Finally, Huizenga brought in Bill Parcells to be his chief football guy and had Parcells just blow up the whole team. Parcells canned Mueller and Cameron and brought in his own coach and GM, men who’ve worked with him before and who answer to Parcells.

As Tanier points out, from the time Huizenga first brought in Rick Spielman, the team kept changing coaches and general managers but never at the same time. Every time somebody new came in he had to work with someone already there, somebody already partly responsible for the mess the team was in. Huizenga made it impossible for the team to start rebuilding as each new person he brought in was tasked with winning right away and each new person had their own idea of just how to make that happen. Unlike the long and successful Shula era no one person was ever fully in charge (except maybe Nick Satan for a year). What a disaster; a disaster lasting years. How did I miss this pattern? I’ve concentrated most of my fire over the years on the bad decisions by Wannstedt and the others but clearly, not only did Wayne H. hire a series of fools, he created a situation where nobody could possibly succeed regardless of their abilities. It’s Huizenga who deserves most of the blame! I think deep down I was rationalizing all the false starts and disappointments on the grounds that Huizenga was at least trying (the Dan Snyder syndrome). That at least he was willing to spend big bucks without morphing into your classic interfering owner a la Jerry Jones or George Steinbrenner. Huizenga was content to let his football people make all the personnel decisions. Huizenga’s only role was just to hire GM’s and coaches (and write the checks) but he screwed up those choices every single time and, while putting one incompetent in charge is never good, Huizenga kept compounding his mistakes by forcing multiple incompetents with different agendas to work together at the same time. The result: 1-15 in 2007, a play away from the worst single-season team performance in NFL history.

Hopefully, the hiring of Parcells and the imminent departure of Huizenga from the ranks of NFL owners at long last brings this pathetic era to a close.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Roger Staubach: Road Warrior

You know whose name never comes up in Greatest QB of All-Time conversations? Roger Staubach. But why shouldn’t he? He won two Super Bowls, played in two more, and retired as the NFL’s most accurate passer. Staubach clearly earned the “quarterback of the decade” honor for the 1970’s. His only other rivals for that title would be Fran Tarkenton and Terry Bradshaw. And while Tarkenton’s career stats dwarf Staubach’s he never won a title and Bradshaw won twice as many Super Bowls as Staubach but he never came close to Staubach’s accuracy or consistency.

Quarterbacks from each decade's NFL All-Decade Team are candidates for greatest QB of all-time except for the 1970's. Baugh in the 40’s, Graham in the 50’s, Unitas and Starr in the 60’s, Montana in the 80’s, Favre in the 90’s. But no Staubach. Of course Staubach’s left out in the cold because of his relatively short career and because he “only” won two Super Bowls. As to the former, that happened because Roger the Dodger did not dodge military service in wartime and fulfilled his four-year commitment to the United States Navy after his college career ended. He’s got to get some credit for the stats he might have put up if wasn’t busy serving his country. Staubach was good enough to play until he was 38 and he was still playing at a very high level when he retired. As for winning just two championships, Staubach did make it to four total Super Bowls, as many as anybody ever has, but had the misfortune to twice face maybe the greatest team ever, and both games were four-point nailbiters.

Maybe he didn’t play as long as other great quarterbacks. Maybe other great quarterbacks won a few more championships. But Staubach did something no other great QB can match. Check out his 5-1 road playoff record!

QBHomeRoadSBRecordPCT
Starr4-02-12-08-1.889
Brady8-03-23-114-3.824
Bradshaw8-22-34-014-5.737
Montana10-22-54-016-7.696
Aikman7-11-43-011-5.688
Staubach5-35-12-212-6.667
Unitas3-01-2n/a4-2.667
Elway9-23-32-314-8.636
Griese3-12-32-17-5.583
Young7-30-31-08-6.571
Favre8-33-61-112-10.545
Tarkenton5-11-10-36-5.545
Stabler5-11-51-07-6.538
Kelly8-11-30-49-8.529
Manning4-32-41-07-7.889
Marino7-31-60-18-10.444
Fouts1-22-2n/a3-4.429
Anderson2-10-20-12-4.333
Moon2-31-4n/a3-7.300
Total106-3233-6026-17165-109
PCT.768.355.605.602


Only three of the 19 men on this list even have winning road playoff records, and Starr and Brady are “only” 2-1 (and who knows if Brady finishes his career over .500). Staubach blows away everybody. Five and One! Incredible. Montana didn’t come close to Staubach. Neither did his Super Bowl nemesis Terry Bradshaw. Steve Young never won a playoff game on the road. No, Staubach’s the NFL’s greatest postseason road warrior. Two of those games were the very biggest road wins you could have: conference championship games.

On the downside, Staubach’s home playoff record appears a tad subpar compared to most of the other top QB’s of the past several decades. Staubach lost three playoff games at home and must take some blame for losing those games. The first was the 1973 NFC Title Game against Minnesota where Staubach’s four interceptions helped doom his team. In the other two, Roger’s Cowboys were knocked out by the Rams. Interestingly Staubach beat, crushed really, the Rams on the road in both the 1975 and 1978 NFC Championship Games, but each time the Rams got their revenge the following season by edging the Cowboys in their first-round matchups in 1976 and 1979. Staubach tossed three picks in the earlier matchup and one more in the latter one (his final postseason game). Dallas lost by two-point margins in both games so Staubach’s picks hurt his team badly. He probably cost himself a chance at one or two more Super Bowl appearances. And with one more big game win he’s probably in all the conversations about the best ever.

But he did what he did and if he wasn’t the best he’s in the Top 10 for me. Classic comebacks. An accurate arm. Great mobility. Consistent success. Multiple Championships. And deadly on the road. Roger Staubach—The Road Warrior.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Starr, Staubach, Elway, and Brady

The 19 QB's in the chart below are the greatest QB's of the Modern Era (post-1960). Of the former players on that list, all are in the Hall of Fame but Ken Anderson and Ken Stabler and both men have good cases for enshrinement (at least Anderson does in my opinion). Of the three active players, Favre, Manning and Brady will all be in the Hall one day.

Despite the collective greatness of these 19, we see how very difficult it is to win road playoff games. As a group these 19 QB's won barely a third of their road playoff games. Only four of the QB's have at least a .500 winning percentage in their road games: Starr, Staubach, Elway and Brady. And Starr has a unique accomplishment among QB's of the modern era: his two road wins both came in NFL Championship Games! Starr (my pick for the greatest QB of all-time) is the only QB of the modern era to win two championships on the road (at New York in 1962 and at Dallas in 1966).

Of course, no QB today could hope to match that accomplishment. Since 1970, all NFL Championship Games have been played on neutral sites. You may have heard of a little game known as the Super Bowl. So the next closest thing a QB can do to match (or better) Starr would be to win two conference championship games on the road. And strangely enough, the other three modern-era QB's with winning road playoff records have all done just that. Staubach beat the Rams in Los Angeles in both the 1975 and 1978 NFC Championship Games while Brady beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in both the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championship Games. It's interesting that each man's second road triumph came three years after his first with the same opponent serving as his repeat victim. Elway took a more unique path, beating Cleveland in 1986 (the Drive) and then beating Pittsburgh eleven years later. Pittsburgh sure seems to have lost an unusual number of AFC title games at home.

If we include QB's of the pre-modern era, we do find one other QB who matched Bart Starr's accomplishment. Chicago Bear great Sid Luckman won NFL titles in Washington in 1940 and in New York in 1946. Let's see Kyle Orton do that!

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Great QB's in the Playoffs at Home and on the Road

Ever wonder how much home-field advantage in the playoffs means to a great quarterback? (You don't? What's wrong with you?). Wonder no more. Here's a list of the NFL's greatest post-merger QB's and their playoff home and road won-loss records, plus their won-loss records in the Super Bowl (played on neutral sites of course). Subsequent posts will analyze some of the fascinating info to be found in this table:

QBHomeRoadSBRecordPCT
Starr4-02-12-08-1.889
Brady8-03-23-114-3.824
Bradshaw8-22-34-014-5.737
Montana10-22-54-016-7.696
Aikman7-11-43-011-5.688
Staubach5-35-12-212-6.667
Unitas3-01-2n/a4-2.667
Elway9-23-32-314-8.636
Griese3-12-32-17-5.583
Young7-30-31-08-6.571
Favre8-33-61-112-10.545
Tarkenton5-11-10-36-5.545
Stabler5-11-51-07-6.538
Kelly8-11-30-49-8.529
Manning4-32-41-07-7.889
Marino7-31-60-18-10.444
Fouts1-22-2n/a3-4.429
Anderson2-10-20-12-4.333
Moon2-31-4n/a3-7.300
Total106-3233-6026-17165-109
PCT.768.355.605.602