Sunday, April 26, 2009

Super Bowl Upsets

In my post on Super Bowl XXXII, I stated that people have forgotten just what a huge upset Denver pulled off that night. If we define “upset” simply as when the team favored by the odds makers loses, then there have been thirteen upsets in Super Bowl history (through Super Bowl XLIII). Here’s a table showing all thirteen:


Super BowlTeamsFavoriteFinal
IIIBaltimore v. NY JetsBaltimore by 17NY Jets, 16-7
IVMinnesota v. Kansas CityMinnesota by 10Kansas City, 23-7
VDallas v. BaltimoreDallas by 1Baltimore, 16-13
VIIWashington v. MiamiWashington by 2Miami, 14-7
XVPhiladelphia v. OaklandPhiladelphia by 3Oakland, 27-10
XVIIMiami v. WashingtonMiami by 2Washington, 27-10
XVIIIWashington v. OaklandWashington by 3Oakland, 38-9
XXIIDenver v. WashingtonDenver by 3Washington, 42-10
XXVBuffalo v. NY GiantsBuffalo by 7NY Giants, 20-19
XXXIIGreen Bay v. DenverGreen Bay by 12Denver, 31-24
XXXVISt. Louis v. New EnglandSt. Louis by 14New England, 20-17
XXXVIIOakland v. Tampa BayOakland by 3.5Tampa Bay, 48-21
XLIINew England v. NY GiantsNew England by 12NY Giants, 17-14


Now I would not call of those games true upsets. In seven of those thirteen games the line was only 3.5 points or less so the matchups in those seven games were seen as essentially even or close to it. The other six games featured one team favored by a touchdown or more and five of those were double digit favorites. So really the Super Bowl has seen six big upsets in 43 years. Here are the six in order of the biggest pointspread overcome to the least:

Super BowlTeamsFavoriteFinal
IIIBaltimore v. NY JetsBaltimore by 17NY Jets, 16-7
XXXVISt. Louis v. New EnglandSt. Louis by 14New England, 20-17
XXXIIGreen Bay v. DenverGreen Bay by 12Denver, 31-24
XLIINew England v. NY GiantsNew England by 12NY Giants, 17-14
IVMinnesota v. Kansas CityMinnesota by 10Kansas City, 23-7
XXVBuffalo v. NY GiantsBuffalo by 7NY Giants, 20-19


Based purely on pointspreads, Denver’s upset win over Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII was tied for the third-biggest upset in Super Bowl history.

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