One more thing to consider: Favre’s thrown over 600 passes for two consecutive seasons now. Only two other QB's have ever done that: Drew Bledsoe and Warren Moon. For what it’s worth Moon had a terrible injury-plagued season and was never that effective again following his consecutive 600-attempt years, while Bledsoe threw for a third consecutive 600-attempt season and had the best year of his career in the process. Given his age and decreased effectiveness might Favre suffer from a tired arm in 2007? Well, I found some evidence suggesting that all those throws are wearing Favre down. Dividing his 2005-2006 seasons into quarters, here’s Favre’s QB ratings for each quarterly period:
2005
| Weeks | Rtg |
| 1-4 | 80.2 |
| 5-8 | 87.4 |
9-12 | 63.1 | 13-16 | 55.3 |
2006
| Weeks | Rtg |
| 1-4 | 75.6 |
| 5-8 | 82.4 |
9-12 | 68.2 | 13-16 | 64.9 |
Favre starts out mediocre, plays very well in weeks 5-8, collapses in weeks 9-12, and the bottom falls out in weeks 13-16. Here are the seasonal splits:
2005
2006
The more he throws, the worse he gets. He needs a strong running game now to rest his arm but that looks like a real longshot this year. If you happen to draft Favre for your fantasy football team, the data strongly suggests getting rid of him after midseason.
1 comment:
It's necessary for Favre to retire because Dan Marino needs to remain #1 in (all the categories he's #1 in) forever. On the other hand, he did much better last year than you thought he would. And much better than he did in '05. His INTs are still absurd though. One ironic thing about last year...the announcers drone on about how he's never missed a game and his poor backups-dating back to Sid Luckman-never get to play. Then in the ONE game Aaron Rodgers got some significant playing time, he gets hurt and misses the rest of the season! Can't you just picture Favre on the sideline sticking pins in a Rodgers voodoo doll?
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