2007 Predictions (Football Edition*)

NFL Sunday is tomorrow. Is everyone as excited as I am?

OK. So this is my last day to predict (guess at) how the Dolphins will do, before they start doing it (or start having it done to them).

I am incapable of just saying, 8-8, or 10-6, or 1-15 and leaving it at that. Oh no, I have to be meticulous about it. Game by game meticulous.

9/9 at WASH: I think the Skins will be bad. New QB vs. our (very) old QB. We win 28-17, go Trent. 1-0!

9/16 DALL: I have a good feeling about this one. Home crowd that I can't afford to be a part of, Parcells-abandoned 'boys, we win a close one 24-23. 2-0, but don't get too excited b/c...

9/23 at NYJ: Ken O'Brien and Freeman McNeil come out of retirement for this one game, get 400 and 150 yards, respectively. Annual arrrgravaton for me, 21-30 loss. 2-1.

9/30 OAK: Daunte's revenge? We'd deserve it, but it won't happen. They are awful. He says now. 31-14. 3-1.

10/7 at HOU: the early part of our schedule is sweet, yes? 20-10 yawner, 4-1.

10/14 at CLEV: This one's for you Jim. We realize we can't be 5-1 even though we're playing another suck team like yours. And it rains, too. 13-17 zzz...4-2.

10/21 NE: oh, please. They'll kill us. Welcome home, Wes Welker...oh, GOD, we missed you...17-38. 4-3.

10/28 NYG in LONDON: Oi, wet n' cold over 'ere, innit? Don't order any kind of "pudding" there, boys...and don't look for veggies 'cos they don't have any. Culture shock favors the G-Men. 19-24. 4-4.

11/11 BUFF-a-LOWWW: We needed that bye week. And a very beatable opponent like our old nemesis. 31-10 romp, Back in Black at 5-4.

(how wrong am I so far? Is this haunting me circa December or what?)

11/18 at PHIL: they're good. we're not so much. 22-35 (we got a late 2-pt. conversion is why). 5-5.

11/26 at PITT: we wilt under the MNF spotlight. 24-27. Game highlight is a drunken Charles "Chuck" Jablonski of Harrisburg, PA, running onto the field only to be clocked by Zach Thomas. Sadly, this riles up the fans, and Jaws, against us. 5-6.

12/2 NYJ: Because I want to beat them so badly...they win. 27 to our 21. 5-7.

12/9 @BUFF: Because they want to beat us so badly, BUT have Marshawn Lynch instead of Thomas Jones, they can't. We're 6-7, no idea what the score was.

12/16 BALT: I realized that if I got all the other scores right, I'd regret not putting in a random guess at last week's score. So we won 24-10. Why am I not talking about BALT? Because they are more boring than watching paint dry. McNair misses this game due to injury. We win 17-10, all points due to defensive scores. Yes, including the field goals. back to .500, 7-7.

12/23 at NE: Unless they've already clinched and are only playing reserves, we lose again to a really good team. Many graphics compare our free-agent pickups and commentators make snide remarks about Hakim, Campbell, and Schlesinger. Which is ironic b/c the Schles will be a sideline reporter during the game, run up to the booth, and beat the crap out of the commentators. Anyway, 19-32. 7-8.

12/30 CIN: Happy belated Hanukkah, Miami. Cincinnati continues to screw up in late-season games. Our 35-24 win fills us with hope for Cameron's second season. 8-8. We finish second in the division because our division also has the Bills and Jets. Who both end up 0-16 despite the Jets having beaten us twice, and splitting their series with each other. DAT'S WHY DEY PLAY DA GAMES!

AFC EAST: 1. NE; 2. MIA; 3. NYJ; 4. BUFF.

AFC NORTH: (still Central to me) 1. BALT; 2. PITT; 3. CIN; distant 4. CLEV.

AFC SOUTH: 1. IND; 2. JAX; 3. TENN; 4. HOU.

AFC WEST: 1. SD; 2. DEN; 3. KC; 4. OAK (getting better though)

AFC Championship: Brady over Manning in a game in which the two quarterbacks are the only players ever mentioned by game announcers...

NFC EAST: 1. PHIL; 2. DALL; 3. NYG; 4. WASH.

NFC NORTH: I can't stop the double spacing. Why is this? anyway, it's LIONS then Bears then Packers then Vikes (WRs, please apply). Oh. And while Favre again starts every damn game, he only makes 5 TD passes. Dan Marino's record remains intact YESSSS!, though there is much speculation (color me shocked) that Brett "may" return for 2008...

NFC SOUTH: NO then TB then CAR then ATL. Best wishes to Joey Harrington and Chris Redman, so that the evil taint of coach- and canine-killer Vick can be minimized ASAP. But since when do I get what I wish for?

NFC WEST: god this blog is taking forever...yes, to write. What, it's not sheer pleasure to read? Where was I? Where am I? Oh of course. Sitting on my tuchas as usual. STL over SEA over AZ over SF in a very tough division.

NFC Championship: Philadelphia over N'awlins.

Super Bowl XLII: Philadelphia 34, New England 30.

BTW, I also predict that I'm going to be wrong. I'm always wrong. This blog was Rob's stupid idea anyway. And is brought to you by the Tinsley Sports Network. (?)

*Not to imply that I'm making any other kind of predictions for 2007.

Fun NFL Facts 3: Earl Morrall Edition

While researching a lengthy piece on Earl Morrall's career (which I'll post as soon as it's done), I discovered the following fun facts:

1) Replacing Johnny Unitas in 1968, Morrall won the NFL MVP award that year. The winner of the award the following year: Roman Gabriel. Replacing Bob Griese in 1972, Morrall won the Comeback Player of the Year award that year. The winner of the award the following year: Roman Gabriel.

2) Primarily a backup QB in his 21-year career, Morrall led his teams in passing attempts just 5 times. Each of those 5 seasons was for a different franchise: the 1957 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1963 Detroit Lions, the 1965 New York Giants, the 1968 Baltimore Colts, and the 1972 Miami Dolphins.

3) Morrall’s backups on the 1957 Pittsburgh Steelers were future Hall of Famer Len Dawson and future Congressman and Vice-Presidential nominee Jack Kemp. After moving to the American Football League, both men played in 7 Pro Bowls.

4) Morrall backed up 4 Hall of Famers in his career, Y.A. Tittle, Fran Tarkenton, Johnny Unitas, and Bob Griese, and was traded for another, Bobby Layne.


The Curious Career of Earl Morrall

Earl Morrall, Part One
Earl Morrall, Part Two
Earl Morrall, Part Three
Earl Morrall, Part Four
Fun Earl Morrall Facts

The Aerial Assault of the 1972 Miami Dolphins

Most people think of the legendary 1972 Miami Dolphins as a team that won thanks to a great rushing attack and a disciplined stifling defense. And those people would not necessarily be wrong. The Dolphins led the league in both offense and defense that year and Miami rushed for more yards than anyone that year while finishing only 19th (out of 26 teams) in passing yards. However, Miami may not have thrown for many yards but when they did they were ruthlessly efficient. That greatest of websites, The Cold Hard Football Facts, has compiled a list of the greatest passing teams of the Super Bowl Era ranked by Yards Per Attempt, and the 1972 Dolphins clock in at 18th all-time. Miami averaged 8.63 yards every time they threw the ball. Of all the teams that have made a Super Bowl, the '72 Dolphins rank as the 9th best passing attack. Of the 41 Super Bowl champions, the 1972 Miami Dolphins rank 5th.

Much of the credit for this must go the man who took over as QB for the Fins in game five after future Hall of Famer Bob Griese broke his ankle. Griese led the Dolphins to a 4-0 start and I'm convinced they would not have won the title had Griese not returned in time for the AFC Championship game, but credit where credit is due. Earl Morrall may well be the worst quarterback in Super Bowl history but in that magical '72 season he compiled a QB rating of 91.0 and a YPA of 9.07. Griese dragged the team numbers down with his 71.6 passer rating and 6.58 YPA. Griese got off to a slow start (his numbers were far better in 1971 and 1973), but 4-0 is 4-0 and we remember that team for its 17 wins and 0 losses, not for its great passing. But that YPA number doesn't lie. Morrall played at an MVP level, future Hall of Famer Paul Warfield was still in his prime, Howard Twilley and Marlin Briscoe were quality WR targets, and Miami also had a fine pass-catching back in Jim Kiick and solid TE's in Jim Mandich and Marv Fleming. That adds up to one of the greatest passing attacks of the last 41 years.

Brett Favre, Retire Already (Part II)

One more thing to consider: Favre’s thrown over 600 passes for two consecutive seasons now. Only two other QB's have ever done that: Drew Bledsoe and Warren Moon. For what it’s worth Moon had a terrible injury-plagued season and was never that effective again following his consecutive 600-attempt years, while Bledsoe threw for a third consecutive 600-attempt season and had the best year of his career in the process. Given his age and decreased effectiveness might Favre suffer from a tired arm in 2007? Well, I found some evidence suggesting that all those throws are wearing Favre down. Dividing his 2005-2006 seasons into quarters, here’s Favre’s QB ratings for each quarterly period:


2005

Weeks	Rtg
1-4	80.2
5-8	87.4
9-12	63.1
13-16	55.3

2006

Weeks	Rtg
1-4	75.6
5-8	82.4
9-12	68.2
13-16	64.9

Favre starts out mediocre, plays very well in weeks 5-8, collapses in weeks 9-12, and the bottom falls out in weeks 13-16. Here are the seasonal splits:

2005

Weeks	Rtg
1-8	82.9
9-16	59.4

2006

Weeks	Rtg
1-8	78.8
9-16	66.4

The more he throws, the worse he gets. He needs a strong running game now to rest his arm but that looks like a real longshot this year. If you happen to draft Favre for your fantasy football team, the data strongly suggests getting rid of him after midseason.

Brett Favre, Retire Already

The Green Bay Packers selected Tennessee defensive tackle Justin Harrell in the 2007 NFL Draft. The Pack's defense was pretty poor last year so the pick would seem to be an uncontrovesial one. Yet, as soon as the selection was made, I heard Steve Young ask, "What does this do for Brett Favre?" Yes, the experts all immediately wondered why Green Bay wouldn't draft an offensive weapon or O-lineman to help Favre. And they also wondered what Favre must be thinking. Why wouldn't the team do what was necessary to help him succeed? But what I want to know is the opposite. What is Brett Favre doing to help his team? Like actually retiring! He's played horrifically the last two years and Green Bay's got a QB, Aaron Rodgers, a first-round draft pick, rotting away on the bench for the third-straight year now. What is the point of rolling Favre out there again except to see him break some records. He's not helping his team by playing in 2007. He's hurting it. The numbers don't lie:

comp	att	pct	yards	YPA	TD	Int	Rate
372	607	61.3	3881	6.4	20	29	70.9
343	613	56.0	3885	6.3	18	18	72.7

At the age of 38, it'd take a real leap of faith to think Favre's turning that around this year. No, the decline is real. Accuracy down, yards per attempt extremely low, fewer TD's and more INT's. Now two significant differences exist between Favre’s 2005 and 2006 seasons: completion percentage and interceptions. Last year his completion percentage dropped 4% to a career-worst 56.0%. However, he reduced his total from 29 to 18, causing a slight uptick in his below-average QB rating. So while his accuracy may have diminished at least he made better decisions right? Not really. Inside the pages of this year's ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, K.C. Joyner, “The Football Scientist”, counts up every QB’s Near Interceptions and guess who led the NFL in that category in 2006? Of course, Brett Favre. Joyner credits Favre with an incredible 44 Near Interceptions last year. Just two other players even topped 25 Near INT’s: Rex Grossman (37) and Carson Palmer (33). Even accounting for Favre’s large number of passing attempts, he still ranked second in Near Interception Percentage to Grossman.

Given the actual number of total NFL INT’s thrown in 2006 compared to near INT’s, with average luck Favre might have been expected to toss 28 or more INT’s last year rather then his actual 18. Favre finished 30th in QB rating last year (counting QB's with 160 or more attempts). That's pretty bad. Look at who he was able to beat out: Charlie Frye, Brad Johnson, Drew Bledsoe, Jake Plummer, Joey Harrington, Vince Young, Bruce Gradkowski, Aaron Brooks, and Andrew Walter. That's some competition. Other than Young, who was a rookie and added a ton of rushing yards, and Harrington, pressed into service this year by Michael Vick's love of dogfighting, none of those guys will even be starting in 2007. Charlie Frye's who we're comparing Favre to now?

And it could have been worse. Had just 10 of those 44 near interceptions found their way into the hands of NFL defenders, then Favre would have finished second to last, ahead of only the hapless Andrew Walter. Favre played worse than his stats show! Green Bay fans look at him and see the 1995-1997 Favre but he's not that guy anymore; he's just not a quality starting NFL QB now. Sorry, it's true. As long as he plays he'll keep hurting his team. Retire already!

It's Alright To Cry

Rosey Grier, a six-foot-five, 285-pound mountain of a man (huge for his time), played defensive tackle for two of the NFL’s all-time great defenses. Playing alongside the likes of Sam Huff and Andy Robustelli, Grier won a championship with the 1956 New York Giants and then in the 1960’s Grier became one of the Rams’ famed Fearsome Foursome. In his 11-year career, Grier faced the greatest offensive lineman of his day, but one opponent was always tougher than all the rest. Total Football II informs us that his “toughest battles were with his weight, which sapped his stamina as the season progressed. In training camp, he was a permanent member of the 'fat man' table, suffering through endless meals of lettuce and Jell-O salads as he tried to lose weight." Despite his ongoing battle of the bulge, Grier's fierce play earned him three Pro Bowl trips. As great as Grier may have been though, all that came before my NFL-watching days began. To me, Rosy Grier’s no ex-football star but rather a beloved TV performer. Actually, most of the Fearsome Foursome achieved a measure of television success. Who could forget Deacon Jones encouraging Peter Brady to raise his voice in song and slough off his schoolmates taunts of “canary”? Should their cruel mocking continue Deacon would just have to head-slap their asses into oblivion! And no doubt thanks to owning some incriminating photos of Michael Landon, Merlin Olsen had recurring roles on television for years. But the greatest Foursome performance of them all hands down has to be Mr. Roosevelt Grier on Marlo Thomas’ now-legendary/insufferably preachy 1974 TV Special “Free To Be, You And Me” (and the earlier 1972 record album). Rosy stole the show with his performance (singing and playing) of “It’s All Right to Cry”. My buddy Lewis and I thought this was one of the greatest things we’d ever heard in our entire lives (then and now). It changed us. Ever after, one of us need but sing the title phrase to detonate hysterical laughter in the other. For who could ignore this powerful message, delivered in song by this gentle giant, this ferocious football player, needlepoint aficionado, ordained minister, actor-singer and bodyguard to the late Senator Robert F. Kennedy? Nobody that’s who! Clearly the song’s simple honesty overwhelmed Lew and I and we covered up our childhood insecurities by derisively laughing in the face of truth. You doubt? Well, thanks to YouTube you can listen for yourselves. Do it now. It might make you feel better.

Fun NFL Facts 2

In every year but one between 1958 and 1968, either the Green Bay Packers or the Baltimore Colts played in the NFL Championshp game. Only the 1963 title game (Bears vs. Giants) interrupted the streak. The Packers made the title game 6 times and won 5, while the Colts made it 4 times and won 3 (but lost Super Bowl III after winning the 1968 NFL Championship Game).